summary: Lebanon remains a questionable nation in terms of stability - the long-time alliance between Maronite Christians, Druze and Muslims has been strained due to the impact and influence of Hexbollah which remains an armed force with national aspirations

STRATFOR

June 16, 2009

Lebanon: The Politics of Accommodation

Summary
Reconciliation is in the air in Lebanon as the country’s Saudi- and Western-backed March 14 alliance, under the leadership of Saad al-Hariri, works to defuse tensions with Hezbollah. Though al-Hariri is resisting granting Hezbollah formal veto power in the next Cabinet, he and his Saudi patrons are formulating a new working relationship with the Shiite militant group that protects and pays tribute to the “Resistance.” Such transitory security guarantees, however, will only last as long as the regional powers will allow.

While Iran is struggling to sort through its post-election chaos, Lebanon has made considerable progress since its June 7 parliamentary elections to divvy up power among the country’s rival factions.Prior to the elections, Hezbollah leaders had concluded that a big win was not necessary, and that remaining in the opposition would be more compatible with the group’s militant agenda, so long as it retained veto power in the Lebanese Cabinet. The 2008 Doha Accord gave Hezbollah veto power (11 seats in the 30-seat Cabinet) after Hezbollah activists spread turmoil in Beirut in a show of force against their rivals in the Saudi- and Western-backed March 14 alliance. With this veto power, Hezbollah was capable of shooting down any legislation that would undermine the organization’s clout and/or attempt to enforce U.N. Resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006) that call for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon.

In the wake of the election, however, Hezbollah tempered its demand for veto power in the Cabinet. The final results ended up giving the March 14 alliance a 12-seat lead over the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition — a difference of one seat from the last parliament. As STRATFOR emphasized previously, unless Hezbollah obtained security guarantees for its militant wing, it held a powerful lever against the March 14 coalition — a threat to paralyze Beirut as it did in May 2008 when Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora attempted to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications network. When the results were announced, Saad al-Hariri, the son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and leader of Lebanon’s Al Mustaqbal (Future) Movement, immediately set out to make peace with Hezbollah by congratulating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc leader Mohammed Raad.

Al-Hariri, though a businessman at heart, became a politician by default following his father’s assassination in 2005. With Riyadh’s prodding, the young al-Hariri is now slated to become Lebanon’s next prime minister and is following the instructions of his patrons in Saudi Arabia on how to manage relations with Hezbollah, Iran’s main militant proxy in the Levant.

Al-Hariri — and Saudi Arabia by extension — wants to return to his father’s method of building bridges of confidence with Hezbollah and paying tribute to the “Resistance.” Instead of formally granting veto power and upholding the Doha Accord, al-Hariri has discussed with Hezbollah the security guarantees that he and his regional partners are willing to offer in order to maintain a good working relationship with the Shiite militant group. Such security guarantees would involve pledges to avoid any legislation that undermines Hezbollah’s authority or that threatens its militant arm. When congratulating Hezbollah leaders following the election, al-Hariri allegedly told them that the question of Hezbollah’s military arsenal will no longer be discussed in public. Al-Hariri also instructed his media outlets to discuss Hezbollah in favorable terms and not as an enemy or threat.

As an act of good faith, al-Hariri is marginalizing Siniora, whom Hezbollah deeply distrusts, and intends to make him finance minister in the next Cabinet. In return, al-Hariri expects Hezbollah to accept current President Michel Suleiman as president, reinstall Hezbollah’s Shiite rival Nabih Berri as speaker of parliament and trust that al-Hariri will not go back on his word in making these security pledges.

This type of politics of accommodation is part and parcel of Lebanon’s fractious political system. The actions of internal players like Hezbollah and al-Hariri are in fact reflections of the agendas put forth by regional players, such as Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. For now, the spirit of reconciliation is in the air and tensions are momentarily defused as both sides work to form a new government and establish a new regional consensus. Power-sharing deals and informal pledges do not have a whole lot of staying power in a country like Lebanon, however, and the current preference for cooperation will only last as long as the regional powers will allow it.

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Posted on 6/25/2009 at 4:35 PM PDT