comment by Jerry Gordon

The Saudis know that their huge lake of oil under their Eastern Province is drying up and past the peak of production. As Judy Klinghoffer notes in her AmericanThinker piece, increasingly water is the product of their drilling. Using the OPEC cartel they want to simply maximize their declining revenues, which current speculation in the oil markets readily assures them trillions that flow into their coffers for reinvestment via sovereign wealth funds and export of Wahhabi xenophobic hate to the rest of the World, including the Muslim ummah. But Saudi Arabia is not alone in that regard, Indonesia, the most populous Muslim nation, has become a net oil importer as its reserves have plummeted. The big major oil finds are in the Gulf of Guinea and West Africa, offshore of Brazil and even the US Gulf of Mexico, that the Chinese and Cubans are exploiting. If the current speculative ‘bubble’ bursts, as all bubbles inevitably do, like the ‘dot.com’ one of 1999 -2000 or the current housing bubble and credit crisis, then the flow of funds into Saudi and Gulf Emirate coffers will slow. Iran will also be profoundly affected by the oil price bubble burst as it subsidizes and rations domestic consumption. So, perhaps we have a multi-pronged approach to fend off ‘what the Saudis want’. It would include Congressional investigation of the current oil price bubble and fostering market conditions that blow it up. Nevertheless, we should, even if oil prices to ‘real cost levels’ of $40 to $65 a barrel, promote the opening of US domestic and federal waters to oil production. Good examples are North Dakota and the Gulf of Mexico. We should ,as we have argued in other posts on this topic, convert hundreds of years of coal reserves using available technology into synthetic gas to drive our cars, trucks, airplanes and even peak power plants powered by gas turbines. Then, prior to the bow wave of nuclear energy plants (approximately 138 currently under construction) coming on stream in 2015, wean us off hydrocarbons by converting our vehicle fleets to ‘plug ins’. There’s oil shale development in the Green River and Bakken Formations, but they require significant capital, even at these towering market prices. These suggestions and conservation would help ,materially, and not subject us to either the Saudi plan to control alternative energy source development and finally break the OPEC cartel.

So, ask yourself a question. Just who is behind a 30% run up in oil prices in the past five months, while world oil demand has increased by less than 1%? Something fishy is going on, and causing speculation. Find out who or what is causing that and you may be surprised as to how rapidly the oil price bubble deflates producing a Bronx cheer to the Saudis and other OPEC cartel members. But let’s get going on a rational energy plan and use the markets to prioritize the solutions. Congress has to wake up on this soon, especially as this is an election year. After all their overall rating is far below that of even President Bush 18.7% versus 27%.

by Judith Klinghoffer, The American Thinker, May 17, 2008

Slowly but surely it is beginning to dawn on a world mesmerized by the Democratic primary contest that an oil cartel has been picking our pocket with impunity by willfully failing to adjust its output to the additional needs of China and India. More specifically, Americans are beginning to wonder at the logic of continuing to keep Saudis safe. Hence, the US-Saudi oil axis faces a day of truth when president Bush will deliver diplomatically to his Saudi hosts the message NY senator Chuck Schumer delivered most undiplomatically:

We are saying to the Saudis that, if you don’t help us, why should we be helping you?

And the Saudis are only NOT helping, they are hurting.

The Saudis have let their output fall from 9.5m to 8.5m bpd over the last two years, camouflaging the move behind the accession of Ecuador and Angola to the group (which boosted nominal supply). OPEC failed to compensate for a 330,000 bpd drop in Nigerian production in April, allowing the market to tighten further.

Saudi behavior baffles none other than Dr Fadhil Chalabi, a former OPEC secretary-general and now director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies:

“They have about half a million barrels a day of good crude that they could put on the market. The puzzle is why they are not doing it. The soaring price is obviously telling us that the world needs more oil,”he said. “I can’t understand why the Saudis would risk their strategic relationship with the US over this.
“They need the US more than ever given the growing influence of Iran in the region,” he said.

Prior to President Bush’s visit, the Saudis put out the word out that they would promise Bush to produce more though they would not help lower the price of oil regardless of Congressional threats to proceed with legislation penalizing the OPEC producers’ cartel for “anti-competitiveness practices”. But when Bush arrived they rebuffed him completely arguing that they had already increased production by 300,000 barrels per day earlier this month. Consequently, the Saudi oil minister insisted, all is well:

“Supply and demand are in balance today… The fundamentals are sound.”

Ouch! but why?

The short answer is: OPEC, including the Saudis, want to prevent oil from becoming obsolete. Alternatively, they want to make as much money as possible as long as possible and to be able to use their sovereign wealth funds to maintain the economic leverage they currently enjoy.

And what will it take to change their mind? For what are they bargaining?
That answer can be found in the Financial Times editorial entitled Time to convene a summit on oil:

First, they want to see energy demands curtailed rather than supplies increased so that oil will continue to be able to meet that need.

Second, they want oil consumers to continue to promote investment in oil and to promise NOT to invest in or subsidize seriously the development of alternatives to oil.

Third, if alternative energy is to be developed, it should not substitute for oil, merely supplement it.

Fourth, they want “to smooth the recycling of billions of dollars in oil revenues from producers back into consuming countries.” In other words, end the growing scrutiny of sovereign wealth funds.

Such demands make perfect sense from the oil producers’ point of view as it will enable them to maintain their noose not only around the West’s neck but also around Asia’s neck. Indeed, I cannot imagine anything more dangerous than meeting these demands because it is bound to exacerbate the current world wide competition over energy supplies and even lead to another world war. Asians are particularly and justifiably annoyed with Western calls to limit their development.

Nor should the dangers posed by sovereign wealth funds be downplayed, fashionable as it may be to do so. It is particularly useful to recollect the warnings issued by the editors of the FT as late as July 2007. Everything written then has only become more pressing now:

The sheer volume of money placed at their disposal – ING estimates that they manage $2,200bn, which could grow to $7,000bn to $9,000bn by 2015 – adds a new dimension to the perennial sensitivities of cross-border buy-outs. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in calling for a European system to vet acquisitions by these funds, responds to genuine concerns over their opaque nature and potential to act through political motives. . . .

Yet the rapid growth of sovereign wealth funds poses risks beyond that of national security. There are worries over competence within some funds; concerns that their scale and ability to affect asset prices could lead to market volatility; and suspicion that they could help countries preserve a favourable currency regime. If decisions are swayed by political considerations, they could also undermine market discipline that matches rewards to sound corporate governance.

Hence, the FT’s editors call for an oil summit at which the oil producers’ demands would be met is most disconcerting, as is their columnist Martin Wolf’s idealistic recommendation that scarce oil be shared and shared alike:

. . . do try to reach global agreement on a pact on trade in oil based on the fundamental principle that producers will be allowed to sell their oil to the highest bidder. In other words, the global oil market needs to remain integrated. Nobody should use military muscle to secure a privileged position within it.

Yes, and my grandmother has wheels. What is called for is a realistic recognition that the time has come to reduce, not enhance OPEC’s economic power and that we will all pay dearly if we squander the opportunity to develop alternative energy sources (though not food based biofuel which leads to higher food costs), presented by the current high price of oil. For ultimately, nothing less is at stake than the peace and prosperity of our global community.

Dr. Judith Apter Klinghoffer is the author of Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East: Unintended Consequences, the co-author of International Citizens’ Tribunals: Mobilizing Public Opinion to Advance Human Rights and a History News Network blogger.