The Region: Let’s not make a deal
Barry Rubin of the GLORIA center in Israel has it exactly right about why trying to make deals with terrorists in the Middle East and the West never work. “Being a terrorist means never having to say you’re sorry.” Whether it be PM Olmert in Jerusalem or President Bush and Secretary of State Condi Rice in Washington or the E.U. in Brussels making a deal with Ahmadinejad in Tehran, Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, or President Assad in Damascus is a march to folly. Read what Rubin says about why it fails all the time. And why in mid-November in Annapolis, Maryland at the scheduled Middle East Peace summit, it will fail again.
by Barry Rubin, GLORIA, Jerusalem Post,October 8, 2007
Quick! Tell me. Who’s desperate to make a deal? Who acts as if they are the weaker party, eager to negotiate solutions in order to end their people’s suffering and the costs of conflict?
Certainly not Iran . It has been pushing ahead with its nuclear program for more than three years during a period of intense Western diplomatic effort, lots of talk about sanctions, and even the implementation of some. Iran is indifferent to threats of attack or warnings of isolation. To a large extent—but not completely—the regime thinks the West is bluffing. But if Tehran really sought nuclear energy, not bombs, it could easily cooperate and have power stations in operation far faster. And if Iran was really acting out of fear of being surrounded by American power, it could help resolve the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq —instead of inflaming them—in exchange for U.S. forces withdrawing more quickly.
Certainly not Syria . It could have the Golan Heights if it wanted in exchange for full peace and an end to sponsoring terrorism against Israel . It could greatly expand Western economic investment and aid in exchange for acting more moderately. But Damascus is happy to wait until it gets precisely the terms it wants: everything for nothing.
Certainly not Hamas. It is unwilling to make more than the most minor rhetorical cosmetic changes. If the Gaza Strip is suffering through sanctions there is plenty of money for its gunmen and propaganda outlets. It would rather wait for decades and the hope of destroying Israel.
Certainly not the Palestinian Authority. With Fatah potentially on its deathbed, it goes on with all the old corruption, incompetence, and demands. Fatah is happy to take foreign aid, diplomatic support, and prisoners released by Israel . But Fatah is quite happy to live with “occupation” rather then making a deal to get an independent state.
Certainly not the Iraqi insurgents. Their whole strategy is to wear the Americans down into leaving. They are indifferent to how many of their own Sunni Muslims die or how much wreckage they do to Iraq ’s society and economy.
Being a terrorist means never having to say you’re sorry.
On the other side, however, matters are different. Let’s make it clear: the West is more concerned over the suffering of Arabs than their own governments or leaders. It is desperate to get the Palestinians a state while both Hamas and Fatah want only an independent country on their own terms, no matter how many dead bodies and material suffering that requires. Hamas wants total victory and Israel ’s eradication; most of Fatah merely wants an agreement to move that dream closer to reality.
Why is this? Because they:
–Think they are winning
–Fail to comprehend the concept of compromise.
–Embrace a culture of patience in which steadfastness wins versus what they perceive to be a Western culture of instant gratification
–Use militancy as a demagogic substitute for peace or prosperity, a reason why the dictator must be supported and the terrorist is a hero.
–Understand that he who says no gains bargaining leverage.
–Hold such extreme goals that they cannot be satisfied by any conceivable deal with Israel , America , or the West.
But why, then, is the West in general so desperate when it is doing pretty well and the other side is basically losing and losing out? There are many reasons for this also:
Some are eager to show their willingness to make a deal in order to keep their allies happy. Thus, Israel ’s government has to keep the United States and Europe satisfied that it is doing its best. The U.S. government wants to show the Europeans, Arab states, and its own voting public that it is trying to conciliate enemies and resolve conflicts.
Then there is the fact that much of the West is genuinely afraid of war and violence. It has more to lose, after all. And it often does not understand extremism or the role ideology plays, thinking that soft words turn away wrath and you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. It expects the militants can be bought off with money, power, or happiness (material gain).
They assume the Palestinian leadership will be grateful if given a state, when they want to be given all Israel; that Iran merely need feel secure from U.S. power, when it wants to throw America out of the region; that the Iraqi insurgents want more of a voice for the Sunni minority, when they want to chop the head off the Shia majority; or that Syria just wants the Golan Heights when it desires Lebanon enslaved and Israel disappeared. Or that Muslim Brotherhoods want a reformed democratic state when they pray for (and stalk prey for) an Islamist theocracy.
Meet those demands, Mr. Diplomat.
And there is greed as well, all the cash made from commerce. Sometimes, too, there is a sense of being on the same side as the supposed “enemy,” that is because they hate their own cultures and countries, the Americans, or the Jews.
Ok, but that leaves one more question for today. Why, then, don’t the radicals win if their strategy is so good? Here’s one reason. As Kenny Rogers sang in “The Gambler”:
“If you’re gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.”
A good poker player understands when to end the game and collect his winnings.
Instead, all the forces listed above just demand more and more without delivering on their own promises until even the biggest suckers among Western governments and politicians learn the lesson. (Ok, that’s over-optimistic. Many never learn but at least they give up or shut up for a while.) So this partly brilliant strategy brings little return.
There are very good reasons why Western efforts at engagement are never followed by marriage and why endless confidence-building measures, peace plans, aid packages, summit conferences, apologies, and all the rest keep failing.
The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center at IDC Herzliya and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs.
October 8th, 2007 at 1:02 • Jerusalem Post • opinon • Barry Rubin • GLORIA • Middle East deal making folly • 2 Comments •
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2 Comments
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Got it seriously correct; It’s such a shame nobody seriously wants to settle any of the issues involved with the serious suffering of peoples from all side in each and everyone of these troubled spots. There is such a deep sense of corruption and minipulation in every single meeting, deal or peace plan involved that nobody on any side or in any country seriously believes there is ever going to be settlements or issues solved. Leaders and negociators on all sides have their own personal interests, some money and most, money and the power and influence they’ll receive when seen as the victor in any of these squables and battels over rights, land, freedom, governence etc.; It there was, (and there has been a few, assassinated before they could actually turn heads and minds to real and effective salutions) one or two parties invloved in any of these squables who actually wanted what was good for their parties, citizens, country or whatever they stand for, there would be a sense of possibility, a sense of hope, a sense that, there could be right where there has been decades of wrong and more closely insane events in the very near future. It was a mistake to give the Jews the land that they had lost hundreds of years ago to the ancestors of the current citizens of Jarulselm, the Palistinians. If you could show clearly the benefits possible for Palistinian and israile in living in peace and sharing the land, the ideals, the technology, the knowledge and every viable aspect of each of the people of both ethnicities; you’d have a chance to change the situation for the better all around. There is unfortunately that group, the one I mentioned previously that is only interested in the infuence, money and power available to those appearing to lead the people of both side of each conflict towards the goal that satisfies all the parties; Until there is no great reward of power, money and influence for the leaders who act as supporters of a final solution, there will be no peace, no prosperity and no sense of safety ofthe ability to go on and live the life you dream of any of the citizens of any of the countries involved; this clearly includes those citizens of the western termed countries, U.S., U.K., Canada, Autralia etc. There’s profit in conflict, there’s profit in selling the tools of conflict, until the corporate, multinational importers, exporters of weapons and killing technology are taken out of the mix, again, there can be no resolution of any of these hostilities. If you could keep the few leaders who were truly for their people and their country interested and acting to obtain the goal of settlement of these problems and hostilities alive, you’ll never see an end to these terrible situations. There just can never be a world ruled by Islamic law, without the continuation of mass murder and terrorist actions that one can only very darkly imagine in their worst nightmares. God in all His holy wisdom and strength is the only possible answer to this insane situation and until the people of the Earth in one mind get together and pray and know that His answer is coming, these nightmarish obominations will continue until there is no one left to argue the issues.
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Barry Rubin has it exactly right but he does not go far enough:negoiting with terrorists is not only non productive but empowers them by legitimizing them as an equal partner.
who are terrorists in theIslamic world? Every arab alive:I have spoken to so called “moderates”, “Peaceful”Arabs and none condemned their :\”Freedom fighters’ thes pious, proud Moslems willing to self immolate to kill Israeli toddlers. when asked if they condemned such actions, the response; a normal reaction toIsraeli earlier murders, citing the Mahammad Dura case(pwerhaps the nearing French trial will clear this staged event once and for all butI’m not holding my breath…)In my book anyone who approves of suicide bombing in particular and terrorism in general is as culpable as the perpetrators themselves:it is notjust a reflected opinion, itis moral , financial and other forms ofsupport and abetment which is synonymous with inducement and we certainly should not hold state dinnerd for them in the white house or nywhere in the US of A! we know now how stupidly criminal was the invasion of Iraq, using the WTC attack known as 9/11 as the pretext and vindication of a scheme to reward and enrich croniesThe proper response, following my principle of reciprocity would hve been the obliteration of the Great Mosque of Mecca. would they hate us more? How much can the hstred grow after their aim to obliterate us?
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